Lubbock: THE conservative bellwether

Always strange to see a hometown nobody much mentions for most of my life keep coming up. It's not always good, but it's fascinating to me.

This morning, Peggy Noonan used the anchor of South Plains civilization to guage George Bush's unpopularity:

In Lubbock, Texas – Lubbock Comma Texas, the heart of Texas conservatism – they dislike President Bush. He has lost them. I was there and saw it. Confusion has been followed by frustration has turned into resentment, and this is huge. Everyone knows the president's poll numbers are at historic lows, but if he is over in Lubbock, there is no place in this country that likes him. I made a speech and moved around and I was tough on him and no one – not one – defended or disagreed. I did the same in North Carolina recently, and again no defenders. I did the same in Fresno, Calif., and no defenders, not one...

The reasons for the quiet break with Mr. Bush: spending, they say first, growth in the power and size of government, Iraq.

She doesn't mention illegal immigration, which I'm going to hazard a guess and say is a fairly big deal among conservatives in Lubbock, probably moreso than the war in Iraq.

Buy my interest here is mainly in Lubbock being used as a political weathervane.

George Bush (the first) made a remark after winning the 1988 election that a friend of his from Lubbock said things were good, so Bush guessed it'd all be all right. The comment led to a few news stories about Lubbock becoming the next Peoria (as in "Will it play in ...?")

This didn't last long, as pollsters soon realized that asking if Lubbockites preferred the conservative option was akin to asking attendees at a baptist convention if they were fond of Jesus. The results were too uniform to be of much use as a national guage.

After 9/11, Bush (the second) wanted a terrorist policy that "the boys from Lubbock" could understand.

The Bushes don't give a great reflection of the city. They -- inadvertently, maybe -- peg Lubbock as a place where downhome folks sit on porches, drink heavily sweetened tea, swat flies and make vague remarks over the state of the world as they hear it coming over the wireless.

Noonan's remarks are different. Lubbock becomes the cliff that you daren't jump over if you're a conservative politician. I can hear the dismissals now (Lubbockites automatically tense any time they get national attention) about how we're a bunch of racist meth-adled simple folk with family trees that don't fork.

But I think Noonan's hit something here: If conservatives hack off this crowd, there's no where else for them to go.